Forecasting the duration of volcanic eruptions: an empirical probabilistic model

Forecasting volcanic eruptions

Forecasting is a central goal of volcanology. Intensive monitoring of recent eruptions has generated integrated timeseries of data, which have resulted in several successful examples of warnings being issued on impending eruptions. Ability to forecast is being advanced by new technology, such as broad-band seismology, satellite observations of ground deformation and improved field spectrometers...

Volcanic Eruptions

Multiscale fracturing as a key to forecasting volcanic eruptions

Among volcanoes reawakening after long repose intervals, the final approach to eruption (V1^10 days) is usually characterised by accelerating rates of seismicity. The observed patterns are consistent with the slow extension of faults, which continue to grow until they connect a pre-existing array of subvertical fractures and so open a new pathway for magma to reach the surface. Rates of slow ex...

Volcanic Eruptions and Climate

Volcanic eruptions are an important natural cause of climate change on many timescales. A new capability to predict the climatic response to a large tropical eruption for the succeeding 2 years will prove valuable to society. In addition, to detect and attribute anthropogenic influences on climate, including effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and ozone-depleting chemicals, it is crucial to ...

The mechanics of large volcanic eruptions

The mechanical conditions for a volcanic eruption to occur are conceptually simple: a magma-driven fracture (normally a dyke) must be able to propagate from the source to the surface. The mechanics of small to moderate (eruptive volumes less than 10 km 3 ) is reasonably well understood, whereas that of large eruptions (eruptive volumes of 10-1000 km 3 ) is poorly understood. Here I propose that...